The Israeli occupation is facing far too many disadvantages in light of the ongoing war, whether on the political, strategic, legal, moral, or economic fronts, as underlined by former Israeli National Security Council deputy chief Eran Etzion.
The former Israeli top official stressed that there was a wide schism between the Israeli public and Israeli officials under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in terms of their awareness—or lack thereof. Meanwhile, Netanyahu himself is not deluded whatsoever, and all his actions and their consequences are deliberate, Etzion argues.
Netanyahu has decided to raise the stakes by igniting a comprehensive regional war. In an attempt to draw Iran directly into the conflict, he hopes to compel the United States to also become involved. However, Etzion cautions that Netanyahu lacks the ability to shape the outcome of this war.
On top of all that is the fact that as the Israeli premier tries to mire the US in yet another swamp it seeks to avoid, Washington is at a point of historical weakness, mainly due to domestic crises and the way it is spreading itself too thin between Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and much more. Europe is no better at all; there is the ongoing Ukraine war and the looming threat of another Trump administration that would greatly afflict America's European allies.
During his first term, Trump was critical of NATO, and his possible reelection raises questions about the future US commitment to the alliance.
European diplomats, meanwhile, are bracing for various scenarios, fearing that Trump might weaken US support for NATO and undermine the front that they have been seeking to paint as united despite many intra-alliance differences.
The current US election cycle is also causing concern. Sergey Radchenko, a historian at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, expressed on social media, "This election is doing more to discredit American democracy than [Russian President] Vladimir Putin and [Chinese President] Xi Jinping could ever hope to."
The US, meanwhile, not only has geopolitical calamities to worry about but the rising stars of Russia and China in their respective regions, especially the opportunistic nature of both states who would swoop in at any given moment to further erode the US' influence, which they are already doing. It would only be exacerbated if the US is drawn into a war in the Middle East, for they would be spread even thinner and would be essentially unable to even attempt to contain either geopolitical foe.
At the same time, another rising power, Iran, is in an incredibly favorable position, as it is currently a direct and vital link within the eastern axis, and although the Israeli occupation attempted to taunt and possibly ridicule Iran by assassinating a foreign leader on its soil—namely Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh—but Iran, as per Etzion, will bounce back vehemently through a resounding response.
The worst part for the US, as the former top security official underlined, is the fact that the situation was vastly different on the eve of October 6, as ahead of Hamas' groundbreaking military operation, Washington was in quite the enviable position in the region, from coming its closes ever to forming a regional NATO equivalent that would ease the pressure on its treasury, to Israeli-Saudi normalization.
It all came crashing down when one fateful morning, the Palestinian Resistance barged into the occupied territories and dispersed all the hopes and dreams of the Americans, setting them back decades in terms of making the Israeli occupation favorable in the region. However, its regional allies, including Jordan, did come to its rescue when Iran carried out its retaliation for the strike that targeted its consulate in Syria.
Yoel Guzansky and Udi Dekel, two senior researchers at the Israeli National Security Research Institute, completed a study examining the issue of Israeli-Saudi normalization, which has been constantly obstructed since Operation Al-Aqsa Flood was launched.
According to the researchers, "Israel" is now faced with making a strategic decision that combines ending its genocide in Gaza [which includes the complete reconstruction of the Strip and ensuring its stability], sealing the deal that normalizes bilateral relations with Saudi Arabia, and pushing for a solution for what the institute labeled as the "Israeli-Palestinian conflict".
The study mentions that this aids "Israel" in its quest to enhance relations with Saudi Arabia and the United States. They added that although the onslaught in Gaza was still ongoing, political calls aimed at establishing official ties between "Israel" and Saudi Arabia did not stop, with constant brokering by the United States. The researchers claimed that Hamas managed to obstruct the normalization process by launching its October 7 operation.
The Israeli government, Etzion said, is being run by an "incompetent person", which was evident in Netanyahu's refusal to accept the US' ceasefire and prisoner-swap proposal for Gaza, which has been on the table for months only to be completely disregarded by the premier, which sent the Israeli occupation down a dark abyss that will prove quite difficult to exit.
As a new Iranian retaliatory strike looms after Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran, the security official argued that the Israeli occupation stands on the brink of severe and uncontrollable deterioration under extremely challenging conditions, as they are led by an unqualified leader who prioritizes his personal gains over the entity's security and interests.
The Israeli government, Etzion said, is run not only by the aforementioned unqualified individual but by "a collection of incompetent individuals," including corrupt officials and opportunists, rendering all central decision-making mechanisms paralyzed and dysfunctional.
Though said officials may not understand the gravity of the situation—or perhaps they do but disregard it for their own benefit—military officials within the Israeli occupation forces do, but they are simply unable to act due to the restrictions of the political hierarchy within the occupation. They are also afraid to take a public stance, which Netanyahu exploits to the maximum. They realize "Israel" could not win a regional war, especially in light of the ring of fire around it spanning Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Iran.
The Israeli regime, one must not forget, is in a much weaker situation than any of its counterparts within the Axis of Resistance, as Hezbollah and Ansar Allah, and certainly Iran, have an absorption power that is folds greater than "Israel's". "A country small in its territory and population, modern, Western, immersed up to its neck in a 300-day war in which it is not winning, should not initiate a more extensive war with stronger enemies than Hamas," he wrote.
Etzion also highlighted how all of the Israeli occupation's allies are calling on it to stop its onslaughts and escalations and presenting it with more peaceful alternatives. The issue is that the Israeli regime believes itself to be entitled to a steady, unlimited stream of weapons, when in reality, once it becomes more of a liability than an advantage, its "allies" may drop it and opt-out for a less demanding proxy.
Moreover, Etzion emphasizes that the Israeli economy is at its worst since 1973, and it should not be further burdened by the costs of an intensified war. The reserve forces are exhausted and the regular army is battered, making it unwise to engage in a more challenging conflict, i.e., one with Hezbollah or Iran, without clear prospects for a favorable resolution.
He points out that the burden of this conflict is borne disproportionately by a specific segment of the population, which is largely unrepresented in the government, and it lacks public legitimacy as over 70% of the population demands its resignation. This government, which has demonstrated incompetence and abuse of office since its inception, cannot justify expanding the war, he stressed.
Etzion criticizes the warmongering elements within the government, media, and public for failing to answer critical questions about the realistic outcomes of a regional war. He questions what agreements to end conflicts with Lebanon or Iran would look like, noting that there isn't even a convincing plan for the "day after" in Gaza. He asserts that the Israeli regime cannot fend off Iran alone, given the significant disparity in power and resources.
The situation is further complicated by the current weakness of the United States and its strained relations with Russia and China. Etzion explains that to end the war, the occupation would need the consent of not only Iran but also Russia and China, who have no interest in bringing the war to an end, as he argues that they benefit the more protracted it is, for it exposes the limitations of the US and elicits oil price hikes, influencing the US elections and shifting the global balance of power in their favor.
Etzion warns that the Israeli occupation could find itself in a prolonged and intense conflict unlike anything it has experienced before, and in light of a war of attrition of this sort, the Israeli occupation is bound to lose sooner or later. He criticizes the media for not focusing on these severe implications and instead promoting a misleading narrative where the Israeli occupation only needs to be "offensive" to quickly subdue its enemies.
His critique extends to experienced commentators who, despite their knowledge, propagate the notion that the occupying regime had no choice but to get rid of the threat, even if the cost was steep. Etzion argues that this approach would not eliminate the threat and would only impose unbearable burdens on "Israel" instead.
This bleak future, described by some as "Middle Eastern Sparta", is being driven by Netanyahu and his government, according to the former NSC high-ranking official. He suggests that instead, a competent government leverage the setbacks and seek a comprehensive deal that includes a prisoner swap and a ceasefire with the support of the US, Egypt, Qatar, and the remainder of the international community. The end goal here would be a cessation of hostilities, bring the Palestinian Resistance to the negotiating table, rebuild Gaza, and establish a pragmatic Palestinian government.